Lewis continues his blog by taking on some of the favourites at this year’s Festival. Do you agree?
These three favourites won’t be winning at the Cheltenham Festival – here’s why
Is the Cheltenham Festival really going to be as predictable as last season where favourites won all over the shop?
It could happen.
The dilution of the big races means that there’s more options for the classier animals to swerve taking on each other and end up going for an easier race.
Vroum Vroum Mag should be running in the Champion Hurdle but she’s going for the Mares. Yorkhill should run in the Arkle to face Altior but he’s set for the JLT.
This placing of horses and the fact that Cheltenham is a strong betting market, means there will be plenty of short price favourites over the four days.
Here’s three that will get beat.
MITE BITE – RSA CHASE 3/1
If this race was at Kempton, then he’d be a certainty.
But, it’s not.
Here we have a horse who only runs to top-class form levels at Kempton.
His form elsewhere, especially at Cheltenham, is very scratchy. To win an RSA you need to be ballsy and full of stamina to see out the trip.
Mite Bite is a speedy three miler and won’t come up the hill. Take him on.
DEFI DU SEUIL – TRIUMPH HURDLE 7/4
To win a Triumph you need to be able to jump hurdles quickly and accurately at pace.
This lad, despite being full of talent and possessing a massive engine, has yet to convince that he’s a realisable short price favourite for a race of such strength in depth.
Something will improve past him on the day.
YORKHILL – JLT CHASE 15/8
Is he chaser? I’m not so sure yet. Last time out in Ireland he jumped massively left at nearly every obstacle and rarely does he settle well enough to give his backers much in-running hope.
He’s by far the most talented in this race but I think Willie Mullins has missed a trick here not going for the Champion Hurdle, which this lad is tailor made for.
Both Top Notch and Disko have very strong form in the book and both look brilliant each-way bets against this favourite.