Category: Prix de Arc de Triomphe Tip

capri arc tips

The Prix de L’arc de Triomphe is a simple conundrum for punters – are you with Enable, or against her?

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The Prix de L’arc de Triomphe is a simple conundrum for punters – are you with Enable, or against her?

John Gosden’s filly has carried all before her this season and is attempting to win her fifth Group One in succession – and is priced up accordingly at around the 5/6 mark.

It’s a price she completely merits judged on what we’ve seen, but more due to the conditions of the race. As a three-year-old filly, Enable she will get a valuable weight allowance from colts and older horses as she attempts to become the sixth filly to win the Arc in the past seven seasons.

That is a clear advantage and when you mix in the angle that she could be the best middle distance filly we’ve ever seen, then some will argue she should be closer to a 1/2 shot than even money. I think she’s a good thing, but won’t be charging in at short odds.

It’s just not my style.

With Enable being so bombproof at the head of the betting, I see no real reason to get excited about taking her on with an each-way angle either.

Yes, the place part may cop but half your stake – the win part – is going down the toilet as there seems little hope of the favourite getting chinned.

The market to get involved in when bookmakers eventually price it up is the without Enable market.

Basically, it’s a bet that is completely removes the favourite from the race – there’s each-way value to be had here for sure, especially if some firms pay the first four home in the big race.

The horse to concentrate on is St Leger winner CAPRI, who continued to be woefully underrated by the bookmakers despite being a double classic winner. The Aidan O’Brien colt is a 16/1 in the outright market, therefore should be around 8/1 when the without Enable market is opened – that’s far too big to ignore.

I’ve got a feeling that this year’s staying three-year-olds are top-class.

This is judged on the St Leger at Doncaster, where Capri once again showed a fantastic attitude to see off strong challenges from Stradivarius and Crystal Ocean – that is rock solid form and should prove to be one of the best St Leger’s for at least 10 years.

There is obviously a chance that this race might just come too soon for Capri after such a heroic effort at Doncaster, but O’Brien is usually pretty shrewd at knowing when a horse has one more effort left in him for the season.

I’m willing to put my faith in his judgement. Some will feel that Capri’s challenge is weakened by the fact Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Winter, however, the feeling is there is not much between the inmates at Ballydoyle. Surely the edge of the weight allowance for Winter swayed Moore’s decision – I wouldn’t take it as a negative.

Recommended bet: CAPRI in the without Enable market

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